How China Might Use Russian Tactics To Navigate Future Taiwan Sanctions

Hand holding magnifying glass over sack labeled "Sanctions".

China meticulously studies Russia’s experience with Western sanctions, focusing on how these lessons could shape its approach to potential conflicts involving Taiwan.

At a Glance

China learns from Western sanctions on Russia to prepare for Taiwan’s defense.
Interagency groups in China analyze sanction evasion strategies.
China observes Russian methods to soften economic blows and sustain trade.
Despite preparations, China faces significant sanction impacts similar to Russia.

Analyzing Western Sanctions

China observes Western sanctions imposed on Russia since the Ukraine conflict, analyzing their economic impacts to craft its strategies for Taiwan. In response, China established an interagency think tank to understand and mitigate future sanctions effects. The group’s creation in 2022 marked a strategic pivot, emphasizing preparedness rather than immediate aggression.

This systematic approach includes frequent visits to Moscow. Officials intend to learn directly from Russia’s sanction experience to bypass similar effects. By focusing on strategies to circumvent sanctions and bolster domestic production, China positions itself as a learner in this geopolitical chess game.

China has been sending officials to Russia to learn how Beijing could blunt Western sanctions in the event of an invasion of Taiwan https://t.co/siEy47J1Dz

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 1, 2024

Cross-learning from Russian Strategies

China sees Russia as a “sandbox” for experimenting with sanction resilience. Visits and collaborations aim to harness insights on maintaining international trade routes and leveraging non-sanctioned partnerships. The ambition is to avoid pitfalls experienced by Russia, such as high interest rates and inflation, that challenge its domestic industries.

“They know that if there is a Taiwan contingency, the tool kit that will be applied against them will be similar,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Observing Russia’s economic setbacks, including its weakened ruble and inflation countermeasures, China understands the high stakes. These insights propel China to diversify and expand alliances, potentially weakening the sting of future Western interventions.

China Is Studying Russia’s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict
… “China learned that the West can get their act together on sanctions when they have to.”
… so China’s strategy will inevitably be to drive a wedge between the US and Europe. https://t.co/GoxS2WPqFU

— Peter Dutton (@peter_dutton) December 1, 2024

Geopolitical Preparedness

China’s interagency group focuses not on an imminent Taiwan invasion but on comprehensive readiness. Analysts predict a potential conflict scenario in the coming years, prompting China to strategically prepare. Through a meticulous study of Russia’s geopolitical encounter, China aims to construct a fortified response that mitigates the economic vulnerabilities of conflict.

Despite efforts to mitigate economic fallout, China recognizes the significant sanctions effects Russia faced. As Western powers enhance their sanction tools, China’s strategy looks to limit adverse impacts through alternative trade networks and domestic resilience, a move carefully modeled on Russia’s lived experiences.