CBO Predicts Surprising Population Shift For U.S. By 2033

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a dramatic demographic shift for the United States where deaths are expected to exceed births by 2033.

Key Takeaways

The U.S. population is projected to grow slowly from 342 million in 2024 to 383 million by 2054, with an increasing elderly demographic.
Deaths are forecasted to surpass births by 2033, much sooner than previously expected.
Fertility rates are below replacement levels, contributing to projected population challenges.
Net immigration and declining birth rates are key drivers of changing population dynamics.
CBO indicates substantial uncertainty in projections related to fertility, mortality, and immigration.

Demographic Shift: More Deaths Than Births

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2033, U.S. deaths will outnumber births. This shift, arriving sooner than earlier projections, reflects a fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. Such low fertility rates challenge the natural increase in population, typically reliant on birth rates outpacing deaths.

According to recent reports, net immigration will play a crucial role in population growth, delineated by an expected average of 1.1 million immigrants annually from 2027 to 2054. CBO’s population projections have included this as a vital element in countering declining birth rates.

Fertility Rates and Their Repercussions

Fertility rates in the US have decreased beyond sustainable levels, projected to remain below replacement until 2034. Consequently, the U.S. population, while expected to grow to 372 million by 2054, represents a decrease compared to prior estimates. Factors such as abortions contribute significantly, with approximately 2,841 abortions occurring daily, impacting birth numbers.

Despite predictions, birth rates have begun to recover in over half of U.S. states, nearing pre-pandemic levels. While this shows promise, disparities remain across regions, with some states still experiencing a natural decrease.

I recently interviewed Elon Musk following the fourth flight of Starship.
While I didn't have as much time as I wanted to ask him questions, I did bring up something he has been sounding the alarm on for a while now, the declining birth rates across the globe, which he thinks is… pic.twitter.com/HLQGYJ6khx

— Ellie in Space 🚀💫 (@esherifftv) June 21, 2024

Implications and Considerations

The implications extend beyond numbers. A slower growth rate of 0.2% over the next three decades signifies potential challenges in workforce availability, economic contributions, and infrastructure support. An increasingly aging population requires a focus on healthcare, social security, and retirement systems.

Addressing these demographic changes requires comprehensive societal strategies encompassing immigration policies, family support mechanisms, and economic planning to ensure sustainability and prosperity for future generations.