Flu Cases UP, COVID Down: Exploring Global Healthcare Landscape

Doctors and nurses in hospital corridor with stretcher

The global health landscape is rapidly shifting as COVID cases decline, but flu-related hospitalizations surge, leaving a complex tapestry of public health and resilience stories.

Key Takeaways

  • COVID-19 cases decreased by 6%, with test positivity slightly down from 9.5% to 8.6%.
  • Flu is on the rise, unlike COVID-19 in several states, with no states reporting a decline in flu cases.
  • The Rt estimate indicates growing flu infections in 40 states.
  • Hospitalizations related to COVID-19 decreased, while ICU admissions increased slightly.

COVID and Flu Trends

The report covering a four-week period from November 11, 2024, shows a decline in global COVID-19 trends, with SARS-CoV-2 PCR test positivity decreasing from 9.5% to 8.6%. Approximately 56,313 specimens were tested weekly across 103 countries, showing progress in managing the virus.

Variations of the virus, such as JN.1 and VUM XEC, remain under close scrutiny with ongoing monitoring by health officials. JN.1 accounted for 16.2% of sequences, while VUM XEC was more prevalent at 38.6%, illustrating the dynamic nature of virus mutations. During the period, 31 countries reported COVID-19 deaths and 81 countries reported cases.

Impact on Health Infrastructure

Globally, over 194,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported, marking a 6% decrease from the previous period. New deaths decreased by 24%, highlighting a positive trend. However, while new COVID hospitalizations fell by 1%, ICU admissions saw a 3% rise, which suggests ongoing challenges for healthcare systems. Approximately 22,000 hospitalizations and over 2,000 ICU admissions were recorded in the reporting nations.

Amidst these trends, the WHO published insights on vaccination efforts, revealing that 39.2 million individuals received a COVID-19 vaccine dose by the end of the third quarter in 2024. Among older adults, nearly 19.7 million received a dose, although the uptake rate was a modest 1.68%.

U.S. Flu and COVID-19 Epidemiology

The CDC’s modeling indicates the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is used to estimate infection transmission for COVID-19 and the flu. As of January 21, 2025, COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in nine states, declining or likely declining in 18 states, and not changing in 18 states. In contrast, influenza infections are growing or likely growing in 40 states with no states reporting a decline. This scenario underscores the ongoing challenges of assessing disease momentum through metrics like the Rt.

Despite COVID-19’s retreat, the increase of influenza cases reflects the dynamic and ever-adaptive nature of viral illnesses within the U.S. The Rt values, which gauge transmission based on emergency department visits, provide leading indicators for case trends, but not burden severity.

Sources:

  1. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-epidemiological-update-edition-175
  2. https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling-and-forecasting/rt-estimates/index.html
  3. https://www.yahoo.com/news/flu-hospitalizations-rise-covid-hospitalizations-000548327.html
  4. https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/flu-hospitalizations-rise-as-covid-hospitalizations-decrease-nationwide-230315589608