Iran’s New Approach After Assad: Shifting Middle Eastern Dynamics

As the Assad regime falls, Iran is prompted to rethink its strategic balance amid dwindling influence in the Middle East.

At a Glance

Iran used Syria as a strategic pipeline for regional influence.
Collapse of Assad’s regime forces Iran to evacuate personnel.
Iran’s alliance with Syria’s Assad is significantly weakened.
Regional balance of power could shift against Iran.

Iran’s Decades-Long Alliance with Syria

Iran has long supported Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, helping him survive a protracted civil war. This alliance enabled Iran to establish military bases, weapons warehouses, and missile factories within Syrian borders. This robust foothold allowed Iran to channel arms to its militant allies across the region.

Despite Assad’s downfall and impending evacuation of Iranian military commanders and personnel, Iran is facing an unprecedented challenge in maintaining its regional influence. As Syria falls into upheaval, Iran’s immediate priority has become the withdrawal of its forces and some diplomatic staff.

Strategic Realignment in the Middle East

The crumbling of the Iran-Syria axis potentially reshapes the Middle East’s balance of power. The “axis of resistance” that once comprised Iran’s alliances in Lebanon, Palestinian territories, Syria, and Yemen is now weakened. This shift provides an opportunity for Israel and its Arab allies to bolster their positions.

“For Iran, Syria has been the backbone of our regional presence,” said documentary filmmaker Hassan Shemshadi.

The dissolution of the Assad regime leaves a void in strategic corridors, previously used for extending Iran’s influence. Iran’s regional strategy relied heavily on Syria; thus, the closure of these access points will challenge Iran’s conventional geopolitical maneuvers.

Regional Impacts and Geopolitical Consequences

The al-Assad family’s 54-year rule has ended with Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Russia amid escalating turmoil. This conclusion to the 13-year civil conflict, resulting in over 350,000 deaths and the displacement of millions, marks a significant pivot point for the region.

“Everything that Iran sent to the region went through Syria. It is now extremely difficult to keep these channels open,” said Shemshadi.

The fall of the Assad regime signals transformative changes for Middle Eastern power dynamics. Türkiye’s role emerges as crucial, capitalizing on its gains over strategic corridors once under Syrian control. Meanwhile, the US and EU view the development as a counter to Russian and Iranian spheres, potentially easing regional refugee crises.