Vatican’s Evolving Ties with China Threatens Taiwan’s Future

St Peters Basilica dome with statues under blue sky

The death of Pope Francis has cast uncertainty on Taiwan’s diplomatic ties with the Vatican, raising questions about future relations between the Holy See and China.

Key Takeaways

Taiwan’s President Lai will not attend Pope Francis’s funeral; former Vice-President Chen will go instead.
The Vatican has increased interactions with China, causing concern in Taiwan.
Taiwan fears that the Holy See may shift its diplomatic stance toward China.
The Vatican is Taiwan’s only European ally, recognizing it diplomatically.
Discussions about Vatican-China relations may influence Vatican-Taiwan ties.

Taiwan’s Diplomatic Woes

Pope Francis’s passing has prompted Taiwan to re-evaluate its diplomatic standing as concerns about the Vatican’s future relationship with China come to the forefront. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te was initially set to attend the funeral, but the Holy See ultimately invited former Vice-President Chen Chien-jen as a special envoy. The decision stems from unspecified “considerations” by the Vatican, marking a departure from Taiwan’s established protocol of sending its leaders to significant Vatican events.

Only 12 countries, including the Vatican, officially recognize Taiwan, underscoring its precarious global position. Historically, Taiwan’s leaders have attended Vatican ceremonies, such as former President Ma Ying-jeou attending Pope Francis’s first Mass in 2013. China, however, claims Taiwan as a province and pressures other nations to choose between diplomatic affection with China or Taiwan, complicating Taiwan’s international engagements.

Vatican’s Relationship with China

Taiwan’s unease stems from the Vatican’s ongoing dialogue with China, which has warmed over recent years through agreements regarding bishop appointments. With China’s large Catholic population compared to Taiwan’s, the Vatican sees merit in fostering stronger ties with Beijing. The Vatican’s 2018 agreement with China about bishop appointments, which has been renewed multiple times, exemplifies this growing connection.

China controls its Catholics through the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, creating tensions over religious autonomy. The current Vatican prefers engagement over isolation, under the premise that any formal deal with China might necessitate cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan. While criticisms exist, the Vatican’s measured approach reflects a patient outlook for future dealings with China.

Possible Future Diplomatic Shifts

Experts suggest concerns over an immediate shift in relations between the Vatican and Taiwan may be exaggerated. The election of a new pope could provide continuity rather than drastic changes in the Vatican’s diplomatic strategies. The Vatican, praised for its pragmatism, may deliberate extensively before altering ties with any nation, including Taiwan. With few diplomats, Taiwan places great symbolic importance on its relationship with the Holy See.

As the Catholic Church prepares for a new leader, balancing diplomatic relationships remains a challenge. The Holy See’s role as Taiwan’s sole European diplomatic ally is pivotal. The new pope’s decisions will be closely watched, as global stakeholders seek clarity on where the Vatican will position itself in the Taiwan-China diplomacy chess game.